Two presidential aspirants finished last month with the same amount of cash on hand, a bit more than $5 million. One was a Republican, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The other was a Democrat, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.

But these two candidates from neighboring Southwestern states are headed in very different directions. McCain is on his way down, Richardson, on his way up.

This is partly an expectations game. McCain was long considered the Republican frontrunner, so when he trailed both Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney in the fund-raising sweepstakes, the whiff of disappointment was unmistakable. McCain only aggravated the anxiety surrounding his campaign by firing staffers and re-organizing his finance team.

Richardson, on the other hand, has long been relegated to second-tier status, so his money numbers marked a surprising success. And then, in an unscientific but widely noticed straw poll, conducted by the grassroots organization MoveOn.org, Richardson finished second to John Edwards.

If candidates were investments, the smart money would be saying: sell McCain, buy Richardson.

One of McCain’s problems is obvious: on the most important issue facing the country, the Iraq war, he is badly out of step with public opinion. In the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, only 35 percent favor the president’s decision to send more troops into battle while 65 percent oppose him. Yet McCain remains Bush’s loudest and strongest supporter.