Last spring, we gave a party honoring a friend who had written a book. The buzz among the guests was all about Barack Obama. One close ally of the Clintons confided that he was dumping his old pals and joining up with the young senator from Illinois.

Last weekend we gave a party honoring a friend who was leaving town, and the mood was strikingly different. Many guests were conceding the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton. They agreed with Sonya McMahon of San Diego, who once saw Hillary as “harsh and cold” but now discerns a “softening” in the New York senator. “I say to myself, ‘that’s not so bad,’” McMahon told The New York Times. “I’ve warmed up to her.”

So what has happened over the last six months? Or more precisely, what has not happened?

For one thing, Obama has not capitalized on his brisk start and stunning financial success. His campaign has stalled. He’s still fresh and appealing, but the impression is growing that after only two years in the Senate, he’s just not ready for the Oval Office. He might well be president someday, but not this time around.

Meanwhile, Hillary has made few mistakes. She comes across as sensible, sure-footed, disciplined. She appeared on five different Sunday shows last week, facing the best interviewers in the business, and no one laid a glove on her.