That’s the question many voters will be asking themselves over the next three months. How they answer it will probably decide who takes the oath in January.

Barack Obama’s spectacular world tour – ecstatic crowds, brilliant visuals, a virtual endorsement from the French president – has convinced the infatuated intelligentsia that balloting is a mere formality. But don’t be fooled. This election is far from over. And in his cooler moments, Obama is a shrewd politician who knows that those 200,000 adoring Berliners don’t vote in Dayton or Daytona.

“This is going to be a close election for a long time,” he told a fundraiser this week, “because I’m new on the national scene and some people sort of like what they see but they’re still unsure.”

They sure are unsure. The Web site RealClearPolitics, which averages all national polls, puts Obama’s lead at a mere 2.6 points, 46.3 per cent to John McCain’s 43.7 percent. And the key states that have decided the last two elections are even closer: In Ohio, Obama’s margin is 1.5 percent; Florida is dead even; and McCain leads in Missouri by 2.5 points.

A look inside those numbers shows why voters are “still unsure” about the first-term senator from Illinois, and their doubts start with a single word: experience.